Almost 68 million expected outdoor presences: foreigners grow, domestic market consolidates
Human Company and THRENDS, a company specialising in analysis and strategies in the tourism & hospitality sector, is proud to present the 2025 edition of the Outdoor Tourism Observatory, now in its fifth edition. The Observatory has established itself as an increasingly important point of reference for understanding the dynamics of the sector, offering insights into trends and strategies to understanding the evolution of outdoor tourism in Italy. The 2025 season promises to be a period of consolidation for outdoor tourism in Italy, with a predicted 67.7 million visitors, in line with the tourist trends over the last year. In the summer (from June to September), visitors are expected to total approximately 55.8 million, while the shoulder months, such as May and October, are predicted to maintain their strategic importance. The sector will once again be driven by the foreign market, which is expected to yield over 38 million visitors (+1% compared to 2024). Italy is increasingly consolidating its position as a "top of mind" destination for foreign tourists, and international players capable of attracting significant flows to our country are also strengthening their respective positions.
For the domestic market, visitor numbers are expected to total 29.7 million, which is a slight drop compared to the previous year (-2%); this figure is affected by the decrease in purchasing power and the search for alternative destinations in the Mediterranean. On the geographical front, the Northeast and Northwest areas have once again proved particularly attractive, especially in terms of foreign demand: visitors to these two macro-regions represent almost 60% of the total, with over 31 million in the Northeast and almost 10 million in the Northwest, both slightly up on 2024. Analysis of the data also allowed us to estimate the direct economic impact of the outdoor sector in 2025, which will stand at around 4.97 billion; this figure represents the contribution to the economy generated by the spending of tourists choosing outdoor options. The estimated value of direct tourist expenditure per capita per day was established at approximately 73 euros. By extending the calculation beyond direct expenditure to indirect and induced expenditure, we arrived at a prediction of approximately 8.85 billion euros for the total economic impact of the outdoor sector.
FACTORS IMPACTING DEMAND
The persistent geopolitical uncertainty is continuing to have a strong impact on travel choices, particularly abroad. Furthermore, extreme weather events, in addition to influencing the choice of destination, are also impacting travellers' preferred holiday period. The decline in the spending capacity of the domestic market (combined effect of inflation and wage stagnation) is weighing on tourism spending decisions: travellers are generally opting for shorter but more frequent holidays throughout the year, reducing the average stay length, or choosing less expensive periods in order to save money and find less crowded destinations. On a positive note, the perception of open-air tourism is continuing to evolve, becoming increasingly removed from basic tent camping and positioning itself as a structured and high-quality option. This reputation shift may influence visitor numbers and increase awareness. Finally, some international players who have begun operating in Italy will have an equally significant impact, attracting travellers who are already aware of these brands abroad to rediscover familiar formats and choose the Italian peninsula as their holiday destination.
2024: A RECORD YEAR FOR FOREIGN TOURISTS
To prepare the forecasts for 2025, the team had to rebuild the 2024 data for each region of Italy: thanks to the support from the Regional Statistics Offices, the Observatory provides a preview of the 2024 results for the outdoor sector. The results that emerged confirm that 2024 saw a general stabilisation of tourist flows, with data in line with past years and perfectly consistent with the forecasts of the previous edition of the Observatory. Over the whole year, visitors in the outdoor sector totalled 67.8 million: up compared to 2019 (+1.4%), but slightly down compared to 2023 (-0.6%). In particular, there was a strong increase in foreign tourists (+1.7% compared to 2023), who reached a record 37.6 million visitors, while the domestic market recorded a slight decline (-3.4%). The majority of outdoor visitors (60%, or 40.5 million) were specifically attracted by the regions of Northern Italy, with Veneto, Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna taking the lead; in this area, the growth in foreign visitors was particularly notable, increasing by 18.2% compared to 2019. The trend in the Upper Adriatic cluster is especially impressive: Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna have attracted 26.9 million visitors, representing an increase of 0.9% compared to 2024. This area accounted for 39.5% of the total outdoor visitors and 52.1% of the international tourists in 2024. In terms of international tourists, the top five foreign markets saw Germany in first place, followed by the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland and Denmark.
For foreign tourists, the most popular region was Veneto, with 16.4 million visitors, followed by Tuscany (4.5 million) and Lombardy (3 million). Tuscany, with 5.6 million visitors, ranked first among Italian travellers, followed by Veneto (3.7 million) and Emilia-Romagna (3.3 million). The summer outdoor tourism numbers were in line with 2023, with 55.9 million visitors; in this regard, international demand also recorded a 9.8% increase compared to 2019 and a 2% increase on 2023, while the domestic market saw a 3% drop compared to 2023 (-3%). Looking at Europe as a whole, open-air tourism recorded 405.8 million visitors (Eurostat data[1]), which is slightly down compared to 2023 (-2.4%) but up 8.6% on 2019, thanks in particular to the growth of some of the leading countries in this segment, with France in first place, followed by Spain, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and Croatia. Excluding the UK, for which no data has been available since 2019, the majority of the visitors were shared between these top 6 countries, which were the only destinations to achieve and exceed 40 million visitors. France is maintaining a particularly strong lead with 141 million visitors, which accounts for almost a third of the total in the area. Germany, on the other hand, recorded the highest growth compared to 2019 (+20.9%), followed by the Netherlands (+19.9%). Looking at the Eurostat data on spending in European campsites, the top 6 varies slightly; in addition to France, Germany, the Netherlands (with the highest growth compared to 2019 at +195.4%) and Spain, it also includes Norway and Austria (+195.2% on 2019), which account for 80% of spending. Regarding the main incoming European markets for outdoor tourism in Italy, Germany remains in the lead with 18.4 million visitors (up 20% compared to 2019), followed by the Netherlands (4.98 million, +1%) and Switzerland (2.59 million, +14%). Poland recorded the largest increase in visitors in 2024 compared to 2019 (+25%, 1.27 million), while the only country to see a significant decrease was the UK, down 30% compared to 2019.
"Like every year, the Outdoor Tourism Observatory has once again proven to be a valuable tool for analysing the sector, acting as a strategic compass to guide operators' choices. The consolidated visitor trend recorded in the last year, and confirmed by the 2025 forecasts, highlights how the expansion phase of outdoor tourism has now reached maturity, and how growth can no longer be based on simply increasing tourist flows, but rather on an ability to offer profoundly innovative experiences. This is a particularly important task in light of the tensions in the global geopolitical context. Operators in the segment therefore need to network and prove themselves as key players in institutions and in the public context, attracting the attention of stakeholders and successfully pursuing the future challenges that lie ahead," noted Domenico Montano, General Manager of Human Company.
"For this edition of the Observatory, the number of visitors for 2024 was fully in line with our forecasts, with a minimal gap of 1%. With regard to 2025, we are observing an overall trend of stabilisation of demand for open-air tourism. However, this must be interpreted in light of the specific dynamics of the different markets and territories. Above all, the growing gap between the dynamic regions of the North and Central and Southern Italy, which are slowing down, indicates that specialised and updated options ultimately draw open-air visitors – especially international guests – more than ever before. In the South, the offer is still far behind in terms of upgrades," commented Giorgio Ribaudo, Managing Director at THRENDS.
OUTDOOR TOURISM TRENDS
Finally, the Observatory outlined 6 macro-economic and product innovation trends in the outdoor tourism segment to watch in order to understand the phenomena that are impacting the evolution of open-air hospitality. First of all, a growing trend of "hotelisation" is emerging, with the introduction of structured, high-quality services that are increasingly similar to those of the hotel sector. At the same time, we are witnessing a selective redevelopment of facilities, driven by investments from Italian and international groups, oriented towards hybrid formulas and service upgrades. The theme of outdoor wellness is increasingly central, with proposals that integrate nature, wellness and conscientious nutrition. Additionally, digital technology is playing a key role in outdoor tourism, between accommodation automation and apps to interact with the village services for a well-rounded stay experience. On the economic level, inflation and a search for convenience are changing travel behaviour, giving rise to new commercial strategies. Finally, innovation is carrying the sector into the future with expandable and sustainable accommodation modules, allowing operators to rethink the potential of the pitches and open up to new forms of smart and advanced hospitality.
METHODOLOGY AND SOURCES FOR THE OBSERVATORY
The Observatory focuses specifically on the outdoor sector, which, in this analysis, encompasses the camping and camping-village categories. The data used comes from different sources, and the collection process involved Istat, Eurostat and the competent offices of all the Italian regions; a reading and analysis phase followed in order to evaluate the accuracy and comparability of the sources investigated; it was therefore possible to bring together valueswith different details in order to obtain an overall vision. In order to estimate the visitor numbers, the model developed for the previous editions was reworked to better respond to the current situation.
[1] For Italy, the data differs from the Istat data, as Eurostat only includes campsites and not tourist villages